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RESEARCH BACKGROUND：
In 2011， the trend of China’s fertilizer market is featured by adjustment and differentiation. The adjustment is firstly driven by government regulation and the change of external environment， and is also closely related to the transformation demand of the fertilizer enterprises. For example， in 2011， the output of fertilizer is expected to exceed the history record， yet the output of nitrogen fertilizer， especially that of urea （carbamide）， has remained declining and its proportion in fertilizer production has decreased remarkably. There is only small increase in demand for fertilizer， while the industrial consumption of fertilizer （including the consumption of single type of fertilizer by compound fertilizer enterprises） keeps on rapid increase. The compound fertilizer has also begun to become the mainstream of chemical fertilizers. On the one hand， a small number of dominant enterprises that control the resources still gain high profits； on the other hand， the profitability of most fertilizer enterprises remains weak. On the whole， the prospect of fertilizer industry is on decline. Some small and medium-sized enterprises has withdrawn or are withdrawing from the fertilizer market. In spite of the high losses， the investment into nitrogen fertilizer industry still keeps on rapid increase in 2011， while the investment into phosphate and potash fertilizer industry declines sharply. The business scope of fertilizer enterprises extends along both ends of the industry chain. On the one hand， they try to control the resources in the upper end of the industry chain through combining mineral and fertilizer production； on the other hand， they accelerate their expansion to non-fertilizer fields such as coal chemical industry and phosphate chemical industry. The above adjustment and differentiation are the major causes of the fluctuations in China’s fertilizer market in 2011.
Due to the government’s macro-control guide toward ensuring economic growth and curbing inflation， while China’s real economy keeps its rapid growth， the high inflation pressure seems to be mitigated， indicating that the over-heated economy is expected with much confidence to achieve soft-landing. Therefore， it is estimated that the macro-control in 2012 shall be slightly loosened than the previous year. However， the national plan for fertilizer industry and relevant investment policy shall still be oriented to restricted development， while the exportation tariff policy might be further tightened. The constant rise of the resource products prices （coal， natural gas， oil， phosphate， sulfur， etc.） will definitely drive the operation cost of fertilizer enterprises to grow higher and higher. As a result， the operation environment of fertilizer enterprises tends to be adverse. Besides， the ongoing debt crisis in Europe， high international oil price caused by the turmoil in Middle East and the continual expanding of international production capacity of fertilizer all exert negative influence on China’s fertilizer production and exportation. Those internal and external factors together shall prompt fertilizer industry to speed up its industry restructuring and the Merger Reorganization inside the fertilizer industry， while the industrial differentiation and the broad market fluctuation shall last for a long time， which intensifies the uncertainty of fertilizer market trend.
On the basis of an overall analysis and review of China’s fertilizer market in 2011， and in accordance with the national economic situation and the policy change， BOABC shall make an in-depth analysis of the trend of China’s fertilizer market in 2012 and provide a clear judgment for people at home and abroad who focus on China’s fertilizer market as a reference for their decision-making.
TABLE OF CONTENT
CHAPTER ONE： MACRO-ECONOMY FERTILIZER INDUSTRY’S DEVELOPMENT
1.1 Macroeconomic Situation and Fertilizer Industry Planning
1.1.1 Macroeconomic Situation in 2011 and Prospection of Development Trend in
1.1.2 Implementation and Completion of Main Objectives of National Economic Planning
Table1.1， Fulfillment of Objectives Set for
1.1.3 Implementation and Completion of Main Objectives of Agricultural Development Planning
Table1.2， Fulfillment of Major Farm Product Supply Objectives Set in
1.1.4 Implementation and Completion of Main Objectives of Chemical Industry
Table1.3，Fulfillment of Major Chemical Product Supply Objectives Set in
1.1.5 Implementation and Completion of Main Objectives of Fertilizer Industry
Table1.4， Fulfillment of Fertilizer Objectives Set for
1.2 Impact of Agricultural Policy and Agricultural Development on Fertilizer Industry
1.2.1 Development Planning of Crop Cultivation and Potential of Agricultural Output Growth
1.2.2 Impact of Investment to “Villages， Farmers and Agriculture” and of Agricultural Subsidy Policy on Fertilizer Demand
1.2.3 Development of Land Property Rights Transferring and the Impact on Fertilizer Industry
1.3 Impact of Resource Policy and Resource Industry Development on Fertilizer Production
1.3.1 Development Planning of Coal Industry and Coal Supply Situation
1.3.2 Progress of Natural Gas Marketization and Natural Gas Supply
1.3.3 Change of Policy for Sulfur and Phosphorus Mineral Resources and Its Impact on Fertilizer Production
1.3.4 Impact of Power Supply Limit Policy on Fertilizer Production
1.4 Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Investment into Fertilizer Industry and Enterprise Operation
1.5 Impact of Oil Price Change on Fertilizer Logistics and Production Cost
1.6 Status Quo of Preferential Policies for Fertilizer Industry and Trend of Change
1.7 Investment Situation of China’s Fertilizer Industry
1.7.1 Investment Situation of Fertilizer Industry
Table1.5， Investment in the Fertilizer Industry， 2007-
1.7.2 Investment Situation of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry
Table1.6， Investment in the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry， 2006-
1.7.3 Investment Situation of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
全^文：http://www.qdlaimaiche.com/R_2012-03/huafeishichanghuiguyuzhanwang.html
Table1.7， Investment in the Potash Fertilizer Industry， 2007-
1.7.4 Investment Situation of Potash Fertilizer Industry
Table1.8， Investment in the Compound Fertilizer Industry， 2007-
1.7.5 Investment Situation of Compound Fertilizer Industry
Table1.9， Investment in the Compound Fertilizer Industry， 2007-
1.7.6 Investment Situation of Organic Fertilizer Industry
Table1.10， Investment in the Organic Fertilizer Industry， 2007-
1.8 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Fertilizer Industry
1.8.1 Analysis of the Overall Competitiveness of Fertilizer Industry
Table1.11， Competitiveness index of Fertilizer Industry
1.8.2 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry
Table1.12， Competitiveness index of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry
1.8.3 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
Table1.13， Competitiveness index of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
1.8.4 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Potash Fertilizer Industry
Table1.14， Competitiveness index of Potash Fertilizer Industry
1.8.5 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Compound Fertilizer Industry
Table1.15， Competitiveness index of Compound Fertilizer Industry
1.8.6 Analysis of the Competitiveness of Organic Fertilizer Industry
Table1.16， Competitiveness index of Organic Fertilizer Industry
1.9 Changes of Fertilizer Industry Structure
Figure1.1 Proportion of China Fertilizer Production
1.10 Analysis of Fertilizer Circulation
1.10.1 Analysis of Fertilizer Sales Pattern
1.10.2 Analysis of Fertilizer Circulation Pattern
1.10.3 Main Circulation Fields and Direction of Fertilizer
1.10.4 Estimation of Fertilizer Circulation Development Trend
CHAPTER TWO： REVIEW OUTLOOK OF FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2011-2012
2.1 Review of Fertilizer Market in
2.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Fertilizer Industry in
Table2.1， Economic Indicators of Fertilizer Industry in
Figure2.1， Profit margin of chemical fertilizer manufacture
2.1.2 Analysis of Fertilizer Market Trend in
2.1.3 Impact of International Fertilizer Market on China’s Fertilizer Market in
Figure2.2， International Fertilizer Prices
2.1.4 Impact of Exportation Tariff Policy Change on Fertilizer Market in
Figure2.3，Duty Rate for China’s Exported Fertilizer，
2.1.5 Impact of the Project of “Prescribing Fertilizer in Accordance with Soil Condition” on Fertilizer Market in
2.1.6 Analysis of Fertilizer-Input/Grain-Output of Crop Cultivation Industry in
Figure2.4， Returns from Major Crops in China
Figure2.5， Wheat/Fertilizer Price Ratio
Figure2.6， Corn/Fertilizer Price Ratio
Figure2.7， Rice/Fertilizer Price Ratio
2.1.7 Fertilizer Production in
Figure2.8， Monthly Total Fertilizer Production
2.1.8 Fertilizer Import and Export in
Figure2.9 China Fertilizer Net Imports
Figure2.10， Proportion of China Fertilizer Imports， 2010-
Figure2.11， Proportion of China Fertilizer Exports， 2010-
2.1.9 Fertilizer Consumption in
2.1.10 Fertilizer Market Price Trend in
2.1.10 Price Trend in Fertilizer Market in
Figure2.12， Producer’s Prices of Fertilizers， 2010-
Figure2.13， Retail Prices of Fertilizers， 2002-
2.2 Fertilizer Market Outlook in
2.2.1 Estimation of Fertilizer Market Trend in
2.2.2 Estimation of Fertilizer Input/Grain Output of Crop Cultivation in
2.2.3 Import Quotas and Import Agents of Fertilizer in
Table2.2， Preferential Tariff Rate Fertilizer Import Quotas for
2.2.4 Prospect of the Changes of Import Export Tax Rate in 2012 and Its Impact on Fertilizer Market
2.2.5 Trend of Policy for Fertilizer Market in
2.2.5 .1 Industry and Investment Policy
2.2.5 .2 Taxation and Subsidy Policy
2.2.5 .3 Policy for Reserve in Slack Season
2.2.5 .4 Policy for Industry Access
2.2.6 Estimation of Fertilizer Output in
2011-2012 China Fertilizer Market Review and Outlook
2.2.7 Estimation of Fertilizer Export Import in
2.2.8 Estimation of Fertilizer Consumption in
CHAPTER THREE： REVIEW OUTLOOK OF NITROGEN FERTILIZER MARKET IN 2011-2012
3.1 Review of Nitrogen fertilizer Market in
3.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry in
Table3.1， Economic Indicators of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry in
Figure3.1， Profit margin of Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry
3.1.2 Cost and Profit of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry in
Table3.2， Production Cost of Urea
3.1.3 Analysis of Nitrogen Fertilizer Market in
3.1.4 Output of Nitrogen Fertilizer in
Figure3.2， Monthly Nitrogen Fertilizer Production
Figure3.3， Proportion of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production， 2010-
3.1.5 Import Export of Nitrogen Fertilizer in
Figure3.4， Monthly Urea Exports
3.1.6 Consumption of Nitrogen Fertilizer in
3.1.7 Review of Urea Market in
3.1.7 .1 Analysis of China’s Urea Market in
3.1.7 .2 Output of Urea in
Figure3.5， Monthly Urea Production
3.1.7 .3 Consumption of Urea in
3.1.7 .4 Impact of Urea Price/ Grain Price on Urea Consumption
Figure3.6， Grain/Urea Price Ratio
3.1.7 .5 Analysis of Indirect Application of Urea and Compound Fertilizer Enterprises’ Consumption Capacity of Urea
3.1.7 .6 Price Trend of Urea in
Figure3.7， China Urea Monthly Retail Prices
3.1.8 Review of ABC Market in
3.1.8 .1 Output of ABC in
3.1.8 .2 Consumption of ABC in
3.1.8 .3 Price Trend of ABC in
Figure3.8， China ABC Monthly Retail Prices
3.1.9 Other Nitrogen Fertilizer Market
3.2 Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Outlook in
3.2.1 Growth Potential of Nitrogen Fertilizer Production Capacity in
3.2.2 Forecast on the Trend in Nitrogen Fertilizer Market in
3.2.2 Estimation of Nitrogen Fertilizer Market Trend in
3.2.3 Estimation of Urea Market Trend in
3.2.4 Impact of Export Tariff Adjustment on Urea Market in
Figure3.9，Duty Rate for China’s Exported Urea， 2010-
3.2.5 Trend of Changes in Production Process of Coal-Urea
3.2.6 Trend of Changes in Urea Production Distribution
3.2.7 Estimation of Nitrogen Fertilizer Output in
3.2.8 Estimation of Nitrogen Fertilizer Import Export in
3.2.9 Estimation of Nitrogen Fertilizer Consumption in
CHAPTER FOUR： REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER MARKET 2011-2012
4.1 Review of Phosphate Fertilizer Market in
4.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Phosphate Industry in
Table4.1， Operation Performance of the Phosphate Fertilizer Industry in
Figure4.1， Profit Margin of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry
4.1.2 Cost and Profit of Phosphate Fertilizer Industry in
Table4.2， Production Cost of SSP
4.1.3 Analysis of Phosphate Fertilizer Market in
4.1.4 Output of Phosphate Fertilizer in 2011 and Degree of Industrial Concentration
Figure4.2， Monthly Phosphate Fertilizer Production
Figure4.3， Proportion of Phosphate Fertilizer Production， 2010-
4.1.5 Import Export of Phosphate Fertilizer in
Figure4.4，Monthly TSP Exports
Figure4.5，Monthly SSP Exports
4.1.6 Consumption of Phosphate Fertilizer in
4.1.7 Price Trend of Phosphate Fertilizer in
Figure4.6， China SSP Monthly Retail Prices
4.2 Phosphate Fertilizer Market Outlook in
4.2.1 Estimation of Phosphate Fertilizer Market Trend in
4.2.2 Estimation of Supply of Sulfur and Phosphorus as Raw Material in
4.2.3 Estimation of Phosphate Fertilizer Output in
4.2.4 Estimation of Phosphate Fertilizer Import Export in
4.2.5 Estimation of Phosphate Fertilizer Consumption in
2011-2012中國化肥市場回顧與展望
CHAPTER FIVE： REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF POTASH FERTILIZER MARKET 2011-2012
5.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Potash Fertilizer Industry in
Table5.1， Operation Performance of the Potash Fertilizer Industry in
Figure5.1， Profit Margin of Potash Industry
5.1.2 Cost and Profit of Potash Fertilizer Industry in
Table5.2， Production Cost of K-fertilizer
5.1.3 Analysis of Construction Cost of Domestic Potash Fertilizer Project
5.1.4 Development Potential of Domestic Potash Resources
5.1.5 Construction Progress of Overseas Potash Fertilizer Project
5.1.6 Analysis of Potash Fertilizer Market Trend in
5.1.7 Output of Potash Fertilizer in
Figure5.2， Monthly Potash fertilizer Production
5.1.8 Import Export of Potash Fertilizer in
Figure5.3， Monthly MOP Imports
Figure5.4， Monthly SOP Imports
5.1.9 Consumption of Potash Fertilizer in
5.1.10 Impact of Potash Fertilizer Price/Grain Price on Potash Fertilizer Consumption
Figure5.5， Grain/MOP Price Ratio
Figure5.6， Grain/SOP Price Ratio
5.1.11 Price Trend of Potash Fertilizer in
Figure5.7， China MOP Monthly Retail Prices
Figure5.8， SOP Monthly Retail Prices
Figure5.9， China Imported MOP（red） Prices At Ports
Figure5.10， China Imported MOP（white） Prices At Ports
5.2 Potash Fertilizer Market Outlook in
5.2.1 Analysis of Growth Potential of Potash Fertilizer Production Capacity and Self-Supply Ability in
5.2.2 Estimation of Potash Fertilizer Market Trend in
5.2.3 Estimation of Potash Fertilizer Output in
5.2.4 Estimation of Negotiation on Potash Fertilizer Import in
5.2.5 Estimation of Potash Fertilizer Import Export in
5.2.6 Estimation of Potash Fertilizer Consumption in
CHAPTER SIX： REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF COMPOUND FERTILIZER MARKET 2011-2012
6.1 Review of Compound Fertilizer Market in
6.1.1 Analysis of Prosperity Degree of Compound Fertilizer Industry in
Table6.1， Operation Performance of Compound Fertilizer Industry in
Figure6.1， Profit Margin of Compound Fertilizer Industry
6.1.2 Cost and Profit of Compound Fertilizer Industry in
Table6.2， Production Cost of Compound Fertilizer
6.1.3 Analysis of Compound Fertilizer Market Trend in
6.1.4 Output of Compound Fertilizer in
Figure6.2， Monthly DAP Production
6.1.5 Import Export of Compound Fertilizer in
Figure6.3， Monthly DAP Imports
Figure6.4， Monthly DAP Exports
Figure6.5， Monthly MAP Exports
Figure6.6， Monthly NPK Imports
Figure6.7，Monthly NP Compound Fertilizer Exports
6.1.6 Consumption of Compound Fertilizer in
6.1.7 Impact of Compound Fertilizer Price/Grain Price on Compound Fertilizer Consumption
6.1.8 Analysis of Compound Fertilizer Enterprises’ Purchasing Capacity of Potash Fertilizer Raw Material
Figure6.8， NPK/ Potash Fertilizer Price Ratio
6.1.9 Price Trend of NPK， DAP and MAP in
Figure6.9， China DAP Monthly Retail Prices
Figure6.10， China NPK Monthly Retail Prices
Figure6.11， China Imported NPK Prices at Ports
6.2 Compound Fertilizer Market Outlook in
6.2.1 Growth Potential of Compound Fertilizer Production Capacity in
6.2.2 Estimation of Potash Fertilizer Market Trend in
6.2.3 Impact of Export Tariff Change on Compound Fertilizer Market in
Figure6.12，Duty Rate for China’s Exported DAP/MAP，2010-
Figure6.13， Duty Rate for China’s Exported NP-Compound Fertilizer， 2010-
6.2.4 Estimation of Compound Fertilizer Output in
6.2.5 Estimation of Compound Fertilizer Import Export in
6.2.5 .1 Estimation of DAP and MAP Export in
6.2.5 .2 Estimation of NPK Import Export in
6.2.6 Estimation of Compound Fertilizer Consumption in
CHAPTER SEVEN： REVIEW AND OUTLOOK OF RELATED INDUSTRIES 2011-2012
2011-2012 zhōngguó huàféi shìchǎng huígù yǔ zhǎnwàng
7.1 . Review Outlook of Synthetic Ammonia Market in 2011 ~
7.1.1 Coal and Natural Gas Supply to Synthetic Ammonia Producers in
7.1.1 Supply of Coal and Natural Gas in
7.1.2 Output of Synthetic Ammonia in
Figure7.1， Monthly Ammonium Production+
7.1.3 Import Export of Synthetic Ammoniain
7.1.4 Price Trend of Synthetic Ammonia in
7.1.5 Outlook of Synthetic Ammonia Output in
7.1.6 Outlook of Synthetic Ammonia Import Export in
7.2 Review and Outlook of Phosphate Rock Market in 2011-
7.2.1 Analysis of Phosphate Rock Supply in China
7.2.2 Output of Phosphate Rock in
Figure7.2， Monthly Phosphorite Production
7.2.3 Import Export of Phosphate Rock in
Figure7.3， Monthly Phosphorite Exports
7.2.4 Price Trend of Phosphate Rock in
7.2.5 Outlook of Phosphate Rock Output in
7.2.6 Outlook of Phosphate Rock Import Export in
7.3 Review and Outlook of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Market in 2011-
7.3.1 Analysis of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Supply
7.3.2 Output of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid in
Figure7.4， Monthly Sulphur Production
Figure7.5， Monthly Sulphric Acid Production
7.3.3 Output of Pyrite in
Figure7.6，Monthly Lump Pyrite Production
7.3.4 Import and Export of Sulfur Sulfuric Acid in
Figure7.7， Monthly Sulfur Imports
7.3.5 Price Trend of Sulfur， Sulfuric Acid and Pyrite in
7.3.6 Outlook of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Output in
7.3.7 Estimation of Pyrite Output in
7.3.8 Estimation of Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Import in
7.4 Review and Outlook of Phosphoric Acid Market in 2011-
7.4.1 Output of Phosphoric Acid in
7.4.2 Import of Phosphoric Acid in
7.4.3 Outlook of Phosphoric Acid Output in
7.4.4 Estimation of Phosphoric Acid Import Export in
APPENDIX Ⅰ TABLE
Chemical Fertilizer
Table1， Chemical Fertilizer Balance Sheet， 2008-
Table2， Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products， 2007-
Table3， Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Products， 2007-
Table4， Chemical Fertilizer Production， 2007-
Table5， Chemical Fertilizer Consumption， 2007-
N-Fertilizer
Table6， N-Fertilizer Balance Sheet， 2008-
Table7， Balance Sheet of Urea in China， 2008-
Table8， N-Fertilizer Production by Variety， 2007-
Table9， N-Fertilizer Production， 2007-
Table10， N-Fertilizer Consumption， 2007-
Table11， China’s Urea Imports by Country Original， 2007-
Table12， China’s Urea Exports by Destination Country， 2007-
Table13， Urea Imports by Customs， 2007-
Table14， China’s Urea Exports by Customs， 2007-
Table15， China’s Urea Imports by Provinces， 2007-
Table16， China’s Urea Exports by Provinces， 2007-
P-Fertilizer
Table17， P-Fertilizers Balance Sheet， 2008-
Table18， P-Fertilizer Production by Variety， 2007-
Table19， P-Fertilizer Production， 2007-
Table20， P-Fertilizer Consumption， 2007-
K-Fertilizer
Table21， K-Fertilizers Balance Sheet， 2008-
Table22， K-Fertilizer Production by Variety， 2007-
Table23， K-Fertilizer Production， 2007-
Table24， K-Fertilizer Consumption， 2007-
Table25， China’s MOP Imports by Country Original， 2007-
Table26， China’s MOP Exports by Destination Country， 2007-
2011-2012中國の肥料市場の概況と見通し
Table27， MOP Imports by Customs， 2007-
Table28， MOP Imports by Provinces， 2007-
Table29， China’s SOP Imports by Country Original， 2007-
Table30， China’s SOP Exports by Destination Country， 2007-
Table31， SOP Imports by Customs， 2007-
Table32， SOP Imports by Provinces， 2007-
Compound Fertilizer
Table33， Balance Sheet of Compound Fertilizer in China， 2008-
Table34， Balance Sheet of DAP in China， 2008-
Table35， Balance Sheet of NPK in China， 2008-
Table36， Compound Fertilizer Production， 2007-
Table37， Compound Fertilizer Consumption， 2007-
Table38， China’s NPK Imports by Country Original， 2007-
Table39， China’s NPK Exports by Destination Country， 2007-
Table40， NPK Imports by Customs， 2007-
Table41， China’s NPK Exports by Customs， 2007-
Table42， NPK Imports by Provinces， 2007-
Table43， China’s DAP Imports by Country Original， 2007-
Table44， China’s DAP Exports by Country Destination， 2007-
Table45， DAP Imports by Customs， 2007-
Table46， China’s DAP Exports by Customs， 2007-
Chemical Fertilizer Related Products
Table47， China’s Import by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products， 2007-
Table48， China’s Production by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products， 2007-
Table49， China’s Sulfur Import by Country Original， 2007-
Table50， China’s Sulfur Import by Customs， 2007-
Table51， China’s Exports by Major Chemical Fertilizer Related Products， 2007-
Table52， China Phosphorite Exports by Destination Country， 2007-
Table53， China Phosphorite Exports by Customs， 2007-
APPENDIX ⅡCHRONICLE OF EVENTS OF FERTILIZER MARKET IN
Policy
Investment Construction
Investment Construction in Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry
Investment in potash Fertilizer
Investment in Phosphate and Compound Fertilizers
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